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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on 30 November and was one of the quietest in decades: ten named storms, a single hurricane, and none of the storms reached the Caribbean (as of 14 November 2026). For Caribbean sailing trips in December, this means a low risk of storms and considerably less rain than in autumn.
The essentials at a glance
- On average over the years 1991 to 2020, a season brings 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. In 2026, storm energy was around 83 per cent below this average.
- The only hurricane, Isaias, did not become a hurricane until 8 October, over the Gulf of Mexico. A first hurricane has only formed this late once before, in 1905.
- The main reason for the calm was a strong El Niño in the Pacific. It brought strong upper-level winds and dry air over the tropical Atlantic.
- The hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November every year. Storms in December are rare, but possible.
- The Atlantic Rally ARC started from Las Palmas on 22 November. An average yacht takes 18 to 21 days to reach Saint Lucia.
How did the 2026 hurricane season turn out?
Well below average: there was one hurricane instead of the usual seven, and storm energy was around 83 per cent below normal (as of 14 November 2026). In mid-November, no new storm formation was expected for the following seven days.
| Metric | 2026 season | Average 1991–2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Named storms | 10 | 14 |
| Hurricanes | 1 | 7 |
| Major hurricanes (category 3 and above) | 1 | 3 |
| Storm energy (ACE) | 19,9 | 123 |
| Strongest storm | Isaias, up to 105 kn (around 195 km/h) | – |
ACE stands for “Accumulated Cyclone Energy”: for each storm, the wind speed is squared every six hours and all the values are added together. Many, long-lasting and strong storms produce high values. The provisional official season summary will be adjusted once more after the post-analysis of each storm.
Isaias formed in early October over the western Gulf of Mexico, became a hurricane at 05:30 German time (CEST) on 8 October and briefly reached category 3 over the Gulf on 9 October. With wind speeds of 90 knots, i.e. category 2, it made landfall near Destin in Florida at 03:30 German time (CEST) during the night of 10 October.
The other nine storms stayed below hurricane strength. They moved across the Gulf of Mexico, the subtropical Atlantic between the US east coast and the Azores, or the Cape Verde Islands. Only Dolly followed the classic track towards the Caribbean, dissipating around 1,600 kilometres east of the Lesser Antilles.
How unusual was the season?
Very unusual. There was not a single hurricane until the end of September, even though the statistical peak of the season falls around 10 September and the first hurricane normally forms between early and mid-August.
Measured by storm energy, 2026 was the quietest season up to the end of September since satellite observation began in 1966. Over the whole season, only 1983 has been quieter since 1966.
A first hurricane this late has only occurred once before in the records going back to 1851: in 1905, also on 8 October. The most recent season to end with just one hurricane was 1925, and 1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes at all. Before weather satellites, storms on the open sea were more easily missed, so the old counts are incomplete.
Why was the 2026 hurricane season so quiet?
Because of a strong El Niño in the Pacific. It altered the winds over the tropical Atlantic so that hardly any hurricanes could form there.
Strong westerly winds blew at high altitude over the Atlantic, with the easterly trade wind below. This wind shear, i.e. the difference in wind direction and strength between the lower and upper levels, prevents a closed vortex from developing. In addition, there was sinking dry air, which strips thunderclouds of their moisture.
The cause lay in the Pacific. During an El Niño, the eastern tropical Pacific is unusually warm, a lot of air rises above the water, and this strengthens the upper-level winds over the Atlantic. In 2026, the warming was exceptional: in mid-November, the water temperature in the central monitoring area at the equator was 2.5 degrees above normal. All seasons with a strong El Niño since 1950 have been below average.
Isaias was still able to become a hurricane because the shear eased in early October in the western Gulf of Mexico and the water was very warm.
What does the end of the hurricane season mean for Caribbean sailing trips in December?
In December the risk of storms is low, and there is significantly less rain than in autumn. In 2026, no storm has reached the Lesser Antilles either.
The danger of storms is not entirely over on 30 November. Since 1966, seven tropical or subtropical storms have formed in the Atlantic in December, most recently in 2013. The regular storm outlook from the US National Hurricane Center ends on 30 November. If a storm forms after that, special outlooks and warnings continue to be issued. The daily marine weather forecast is therefore still part of the routine in December.
The difference in the weather is clear. On Guadeloupe, December sees an average of 137 millimetres of rain over the long term, compared with 236 millimetres in September. February and March are the driest months, with 64 and 73 millimetres. In December, daytime temperatures reach just under 30 degrees, and nights are around 21 degrees. You can find out which months are best suited to a sailing trip on the page Sailing in the Caribbean.
For owners with a boat in the region: the dates of 1 June and 30 November are a statistical definition, not a guarantee of safety. For insurance cover, the deadlines in your own policy are what count.
ARC 2026: arrival in the Caribbean
The Atlantic Rally ARC set off from Las Palmas on Gran Canaria on 22 November for the crossing of around 2,700 nautical miles to Rodney Bay on Saint Lucia. An average yacht takes 18 to 21 days, so most boats arrive in mid-December. The prize-giving is scheduled for 19 December. You can find out more about the schedule in the article ARC 2026: start in Las Palmas, finish at Saint Lucia.
What happens next in 2027?
There is no season forecast for 2027 yet. El Niño is expected to remain strong into winter and to weaken in early 2027.
In mid-November, the probability that it would still be strong to very strong from January to March 2027 was around 80 per cent. The first long-range forecasts for the 2027 season will appear from December, and the well-known seasonal forecasts from April.
Frequently asked questions
How many hurricanes were there in 2026?
One. Isaias was the only hurricane of the 2026 season and also its strongest storm. The other nine named storms stayed below hurricane strength.
Why were there so few hurricanes in 2026?
Because of a strong El Niño in the Pacific. Over the tropical Atlantic it brought strong wind shear and dry air, conditions in which hurricanes hardly ever form.
Can storms still occur after the end of the hurricane season?
Yes, but rarely. Since 1966, seven tropical or subtropical storms have formed in the Atlantic in December, the last one in 2013.
When does the 2027 hurricane season begin?
On 1 June 2027. The first long-range forecasts will appear from December 2026, and the well-known seasonal forecasts from April 2027.
Caribbean sailing trips on Törnfinder
You can find sailing trips between the islands of the Caribbean on Törnfinder under Sailing in the Caribbean. For an overview of the islands, trade winds, hurricane season and clearing in, see the Sailing area information Lesser Antilles. You can find more warm destinations for the colder months under Sailing trips in winter.
